Friday, June 06, 2008

Can't believe it's June already... Today the equity markets took a bath, down about 3%. The NFP job report was weak, and oil surged to record high.

My portfolio went down today 2.1%, quite a bit better than the market. I took this opportunity to add to a couple positions (MO, MOT), and closed a leap covered call in MCD. I started a position in MOT recently, hoping it will be a turnaround story, with Icahn bugging the management, and the imminent mobile phone business sale. I tried to think if I was being sentimental about this buy (I interned at MOT when I was in college a long time back). I'd be lying to completely deny it, but with all the bad news already out there, maybe MOT has bottomed around $9. MOT pays a 2.2% dividend at the current price level, although honestly I'm not sure if it will be cut.

I'm lucky to have closed out BE yesterday for a good 10% gain over two days. BE is also a turnaround story, but until it turns in a positive quarter (or provides very positive guidance), I'm just going to trade it. HP is going to buy EDS, which is negative for BE. One would think at this price (market cap 300M + 900M debt) and a revenue of 3.3B, it would be a great acquisition target, but so far nothing has happened.

This week I've done quite well on the forex market, realizing a gain almost 180% of my monthly target. I played the USD long correctly, and exited before the trend reversed today.

My stock portfolio now consists of: MOT HGM CVTX SGP OI MCD MO PM BP HAL EPD C WM FNM.

The biggest winners are still energy and the biggest losers are still financials. Given that the Fed has signaled a rate-cut pause, the recovery of financials will likely take even longer. The problem is I'm in so deep, taking a loss now might not be a good idea. Other than WM, C and FNM both pay a decent dividend. And I'm not sure where else to deploy the cash, even if I have taken a loss there.

I rotated out of F-S into HGM. Both preferred stocks in the autos. I recorded a 10% gain in F-S, and think GM is a better international bet than Ford. HGM pays about 12% dividend currently, and is certainly another turnaround story.

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